Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional
decks
3
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
4-7-2
overall winrate
38.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.7%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1235
· median 1264
· range 1121–1319
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1280
Q3 1472
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.4% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -2.0 |
| Hidden | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
